The Star Navigator

Host: Most traders think in days and weeks. Some think in months. Very few think in decades. Captain Ingrid is one of the few. A former geologist who spent 10 years in the oil industry before transitioning to macro investing, she built a portfolio around secular themes that most investors ignored until they became undeniable. Ingrid, welcome to the Mess Deck.

Ingrid: Thank you. I should say — I'm not a trader. I trade maybe six times a year. I'm an allocator. I find themes I believe will matter for 10–20 years, and I position for them. The hard part is sitting still.

Host: Your background is unusual. Geology to investing.

Ingrid: It gave me an edge most investors don't have. I understand the physics of energy. I know how hard it is to find copper. I know that renewable doesn't mean infinite. When I left oil in 2012, I saw the shale boom firsthand. I also saw its limits. Shale wells deplete 70% in the first year. You need to drill constantly just to stand still. That is not a sustainable energy system. Meanwhile, solar costs were dropping 20% per year. The writing was on the wall.

Host: Your first big bet was the energy transition.

Ingrid: In 2015, I put 25% of my portfolio into what I called the electron economy. Solar manufacturers, battery companies, grid infrastructure, electric vehicle suppliers. Not Tesla — too expensive, too narrative-driven. The picks-and-shovels plays. Enphase. SolarEdge. Lithium miners. Copper miners. I also bought uranium, because I knew nuclear would be part of the solution, even if the public hated it.

Host: How did that perform?

Ingrid: Terribly for the first four years. From 2015 to 2019, solar stocks went nowhere. Oil was cheap. Nobody cared about climate. My portfolio underperformed the S&P by 15% annually. I questioned myself constantly. But the thesis hadn't changed. Solar was still getting cheaper. Batteries were still improving. I held. And then 2020 happened. And then the IRA passed in 2022. By 2024, that 25% allocation had tripled.

Host: You also bet on demographic divergence.

Ingrid: Yes. In 2016, I read a UN population projection. Japan's population was shrinking. Europe's was flat. But Africa's was exploding. India's median age was 27. I realized the world was splitting in two: old, rich, shrinking economies and young, poor, growing economies. The investment implications were massive.

Host: What did you buy?

Ingrid: On the aging side: Japanese healthcare robotics, European pharmaceutical companies with geriatric pipelines, US senior housing REITs. On the youth side: Indian fintech, African mobile money, Southeast Asian e-commerce. Not individual stocks — too risky. ETFs and closed-end funds with local expertise. The WisdomTree India ETF. The AFK Africa ETF. The Global X Aging Population ETF. I didn't need to pick winners. I needed to be in the right geographies.

Host: The deglobalization trade.

Ingrid: That came later. 2018, when the trade war started. I had been a beneficiary of globalization — I worked for a multinational oil company. But I saw the political shift. Populism was rising everywhere. The consensus that free trade is always good was breaking. I started buying defense contractors, domestic manufacturing, and critical mineral companies in friendly jurisdictions. Not because I wanted the world to fragment. Because I believed it would.

Host: The hardest period was 2020–2022.

Ingrid: Brutal. COVID crashed everything in March 2020. My energy transition stocks got hammered — oil went negative, remember? Then 2021 was a tech bubble that made my value-oriented macro bets look stupid. Then 2022: inflation, rate hikes, war in Ukraine. My portfolio was down 30% at one point. I had friends calling me, asking if I was okay. I was fine. I had cash. I had conviction. And I had a 10-year horizon.

Host: What did you do in 2022?

Ingrid: I bought. Aggressively. Energy transition stocks were on sale. Uranium was on sale. Emerging markets were on sale. I deployed 40% of my cash between June and October 2022. I didn't catch the bottom. I didn't need to. I caught the area. By 2024, the portfolio had recovered and was at new highs.

Host: What's your portfolio look like today?

Ingrid: Energy transition: 30%. Demographic plays: 20%. Deglobalization / defense: 15%. Gold and commodities: 10%. Cash: 15%. Broad market index: 10%. No bonds — I think rates stay higher for longer. I'm not trying to time the market. I'm trying to own the future.

Host: What would you tell investors who want to think in decades?

Ingrid: Read. Not stock tips — history, demography, geology, geopolitics. The best investments are obvious in hindsight. The hard part is holding them when they're not working. I held solar stocks through four years of underperformance. Most people can't do that. They want quarterly validation. Secular themes don't give quarterly validation. They give decade-long rewards to the patient.